Back to articles
Proceedings Paper
Volume: 38 | Article ID: HPCI-200
Image
Towards Scaling Law Analysis For Spatiotemporal Weather Data
  DOI :  10.2352/EI.2026.38.11.HPCI-200  Published OnlineMarch 2026
Abstract
Abstract

Compute-optimal scaling laws are relatively well studied for NLP and CV, where objectives are typically single-step and targets are comparatively homogeneous. Weather forecasting is harder to characterize in the same framework: autoregressive rollouts compound errors over long horizons, outputs couple many physical channels with disparate scales and predictability, and globally pooled test metrics can disagree sharply with per-channel, late-lead behavior implied by short-horizon training. We extend neural scaling analysis for autoregressive weather forecasting from single-step training loss to long rollouts and per-channel metrics. We quantify (1) how prediction error is distributed across channels and how its growth rate evolves with forecast horizon, (2) if power law scaling holds for test error, relative to rollout length when error is pooled globally, and (3) how that fit varies jointly with horizon and channel for parameter, data, and compute-based scaling axes. We find strong cross-channel and cross-horizon heterogeneity: pooled scaling can look favorable while many channels degrade at late leads. We discuss implications for weighted objectives, horizon-aware curricula, and resource allocation across outputs.

Subject Areas :
Views 11
Downloads 3
 articleview.views 11
 articleview.downloads 3
  Cite this article 

Alexander Kiefer, Prasanna Balaprakash, Xiao Wang, "Towards Scaling Law Analysis For Spatiotemporal Weather Datain Electronic Imaging,  2026,  pp 200-1 - 200-10,  https://doi.org/10.2352/EI.2026.38.11.HPCI-200

 Copy citation
  Copyright statement 
Copyright ©2026 Society for Imaging Science and Technology 2026
ei
Electronic Imaging
2470-1173
2470-1173
Society for Imaging Science and Technology
IS&T 7003 Kilworth Lane, Springfield, VA 22151 USA